Decide whether a bid deserves your team’s time

A disciplined no-bid decision protects capacity for opportunities you can deliver well. This lesson gives you a repeatable decision process that colleagues can understand and challenge.

Common to all countries

Check hard stops before scoring attractiveness

First establish whether you can satisfy the stated participation and mandatory requirements. Then test delivery: the right people, equipment, location coverage and start date. Finally test commercial viability, including bid effort, delivery costs, risk and cash needs.

1. 01

   Can we qualify?

   Required conditions, documents and capabilities

   ↓
2. 02

   Can we deliver?

   Team, timing, partners and risks

   ↓
3. 03

   Is it viable?

   Bid effort, pricing and contract fit

An unknown calls for verification. A blocking constraint may mean declining. Document the decision with the team.

Do not let a high score for “strategic importance” cancel a mandatory condition you cannot meet. If a permitted partner or clarification might resolve a gap, record the action and the date by which it must be resolved. An unknown is not the same as a pass.

The Scottish Government’s business-analysis guidance provides a useful starting point for assessing resources and ability to supply. The decision worksheet below is an original teaching method, not an official procurement rule.

Compare opportunities using the same questions

Once hard stops are cleared, assess four dimensions: relevance of your solution; credibility of your evidence; delivery risk; and commercial return. Use a simple low, medium or high assessment with a short reason. A precise-looking score without evidence can hide more uncertainty than it resolves.

Dimension	Luma’s initial finding	Decision consequence
Service fit	Most equipment matches current skills	Positive, subject to the remaining equipment list
Evidence	Two comparable assignments	References need permission and scope checks
Capacity	One engineer’s availability unconfirmed	Delivery lead must verify before commitment
Economics	Bid needs 40 hours at 50 per hour	Allow 2,000 of internal bid cost, plus any external costs

The figures are fictional and expressed in generic monetary units. Those 40 hours also have an opportunity cost: the team cannot use the same time on another bid or customer project.

Use scenarios, not a pretend win probability

You rarely know your true probability of winning a single tender. If you use a probability estimate internally, label it as an assumption and test several values. Do not present “30% chance” as a measured fact because a spreadsheet contains it.

It can be more useful to compare a conservative delivery case with the expected case. What if travel takes longer, orders are lower or a specialist must be hired? A contract that works only under the most optimistic assumptions deserves further investigation before the team promises a price.

Make a decision that can be revisited

Use three outcomes: bid, with a named lead and effort budget; conditional bid, with a specific unresolved condition and deadline; or no bid, with a reason worth retaining. Record the decision date and the evidence used.

Luma decides to proceed only if its delivery lead confirms engineer coverage by Tuesday and the remaining equipment falls within its capability. Until then, the team limits work to those checks. If a later amendment materially changes the service, Luma reopens the decision rather than continuing simply because it has already spent time.

Country specific — what to verify

Check eligibility, exclusion grounds, selection conditions and whether reliance on partners is permitted. Confirm rules on withdrawal, bid validity, securities and any consequences of submitting or withdrawing an offer. These may affect your commitment before a contract is awarded.

Keep legal questions separate from internal commercial preferences. “We prefer contracts nearby” is a business choice. “The stated licence is mandatory and we do not hold an accepted equivalent” needs a legal and factual check.

Put it into practice

Hold a 20-minute decision meeting for one opportunity. List hard stops, unresolved facts, delivery risks and the estimated bid effort. End with one of the three outcomes and an owner for each outstanding action.

Self-check: someone absent from the meeting should be able to explain the decision from the record. “Interesting market” is not enough. “Proceed if coverage is confirmed by Tuesday, with a 40-hour bid budget” is a decision the team can execute and later review.